CS2 Trade Up Contract Guide: Complete Mechanics, Odds & Strategy
Master the trade-up contract system in Counter-Strike 2. This comprehensive guide explains how trade-ups work, how to calculate float values and outcome probabilities, and strategies for finding profitable trade-up opportunities in the CS2 skin economy.
What is a Trade Up Contract?
A trade-up contract is a built-in CS2 feature that allows you to exchange 10 weapon skins of the same rarity tier for one skin of the next higher rarity tier. This mechanic has existed since CS:GO and provides an alternative way to obtain higher-tier skins without directly purchasing them or opening cases.
Trade-up contracts appeal to players who want to gamble on upgrading their inventory, convert bulk low-tier skins into fewer high-tier ones, or attempt to profit by carefully selecting inputs. According to the Steam Community discussions, trade-ups represent one of the most mathematically complex systems in CS2's skin economy.
Understanding Trade-Up Value
Trade-ups are fundamentally a risk-reward calculation. Unlike case openings where odds are fixed, trade-up outcomes can be manipulated through strategic input selection. The key is understanding both the probability math and current market prices to identify opportunities where expected value is positive.
Try Our Trade-Up Calculator
Ready to calculate your trade-up outcomes? Use our free CS2 Trade-Up Calculator to input your skins, see all possible outcomes with exact probabilities, and determine expected profit or loss before executing any trade-up contract.
How Trade Ups Work
The trade-up system follows specific rules that determine what output you can receive:
Step-by-Step Process
- Select 10 input skins of the same rarity tier (all Mil-Spec, all Restricted, etc.)
- Confirm the trade-up through the in-game interface
- The system calculates all possible outcome skins based on input collections
- One outcome is randomly selected based on input weights (10% per skin)
- Output float is calculated from input floats using a specific formula
- You receive the resulting higher-tier skin
Key Rules
- All 10 input skins must be the same rarity tier
- Covert (Red) skins cannot be traded up (no higher tier exists)
- Knives, gloves, and special items cannot be used in trade-ups
- StatTrak inputs can only produce StatTrak outputs (and vice versa)
- The output collection depends on input skin collections
- Each input contributes 10% probability toward its collection's possible outputs
Collection Requirements
For a trade-up to work, at least one input skin's collection must have items in the next rarity tier. If you try to use 10 skins from a collection that has no higher-tier items, the trade-up won't be possible. Always verify collection contents before planning trade-ups.
Rarity Tiers & Trade Up Paths
Understanding the rarity hierarchy is essential for planning trade-ups. Here's how skins progress through the tiers:
(White)
(Light Blue)
(Blue)
(Purple)
(Pink)
(Red)
Trade-Up Paths by Starting Tier
| Input Tier | Output Tier | Typical Input Cost | Potential Output Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Grade (White) | Industrial Grade (Light Blue) | $0.03 - $0.10 each | $0.10 - $1.00 |
| Industrial Grade (Light Blue) | Mil-Spec (Blue) | $0.10 - $0.50 each | $0.50 - $5.00 |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | Restricted (Purple) | $0.50 - $5.00 each | $3.00 - $50.00 |
| Restricted (Purple) | Classified (Pink) | $3.00 - $30.00 each | $15.00 - $300.00 |
| Classified (Pink) | Covert (Red) | $15.00 - $150.00 each | $50.00 - $2,000.00+ |
Higher-tier trade-ups involve more financial risk but offer potential for significant returns. Most profitable trade-ups occur in the Mil-Spec to Restricted and Restricted to Classified tiers where market inefficiencies are more common.
Float Value Calculation
Understanding how output float values are calculated is crucial for trade-up success. The float determines your output skin's wear condition, which significantly affects its market value. For a detailed understanding of float mechanics, see our Float Values Explained guide.
Trade-Up Float Formula
Where:
- Average Input Float = Sum of all 10 input floats ÷ 10
- Max Float = Maximum possible float for the output skin
- Min Float = Minimum possible float for the output skin
Float Calculation Example
Practical Example
Let's say you have 10 input skins with an average float of 0.10
Your output skin has a float range of 0.00 - 0.50
Result: Your output will be Factory New (0.05 float falls in FN range of 0.00-0.07)
Float Ranges by Wear Condition
Standard Float Ranges:
Predicting Trade Up Outcomes
Each input skin contributes a 10% weight toward possible outcomes from its collection. By strategically selecting inputs from specific collections, you can control the probability distribution of outcomes.
Probability Calculation
The chance of getting a specific output depends on how many inputs come from collections containing that output:
Example: 7/3 Split
Inputs
Possible Outputs
Example: 10/0 Split
Inputs
Possible Outputs
(Assuming Collection A has 2 purple skins)
Within-Collection Distribution
When a collection is selected, each possible output skin within that collection has an equal chance. If Collection A has 3 purple skins and contributes 70% to your trade-up, each of those 3 skins has a 70% ÷ 3 = 23.3% chance of being selected.
Outcome Probability Formula
Example: 7 inputs from a collection with 2 possible outputs = 70% ÷ 2 = 35% per skin
Profitable Trade Up Strategies
Finding profitable trade-ups requires understanding expected value (EV) calculations. A trade-up is profitable when the expected value of outcomes exceeds the cost of inputs.
Expected Value Calculation
Expected Value Formula
For each possible outcome, multiply its probability by its market value. Sum all these values, then subtract the total cost of your 10 input skins. Positive EV = profitable trade-up.
Key Strategies
Target High-Value Outliers
Look for collections where one skin is significantly more valuable than others at the same tier. Structure your inputs to maximize probability of hitting that skin while minimizing exposure to low-value outcomes.
Calculate Break-Even Points
Before committing, calculate the minimum outcome value needed to break even. If even the worst possible outcome covers your input costs, the trade-up has zero downside risk.
Float Arbitrage
Buy low-float inputs cheaply and trade up to Factory New outputs. FN versions often carry significant premiums over other conditions, creating profit opportunities through float optimization.
Market Timing
Input skin prices fluctuate with case drops and sales. Buy inputs when prices are depressed (during major Steam sales, new case releases) and trade up when output demand is high.
Volume Approach
Small-margin profitable trade-ups can compound over many attempts. Focus on consistent 5-15% EV trades rather than gambling on high-variance outcomes.
Risk Management
Never put more than you can afford to lose into a single trade-up. Even high-EV trades can result in losses due to variance. Spread risk across multiple trade-ups.
Many experienced traders use tools like CSGOStash to research collections and the Steam Community Market for current pricing data.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Many players lose money on trade-ups due to avoidable errors. Here's what to watch out for:
Do This
- Calculate expected value before every trade-up
- Verify collection contents and output possibilities
- Check float ranges for output skins
- Use low-float inputs when targeting FN outputs
- Factor in Steam Market fees (15%)
- Research current market prices for all outcomes
- Keep records of trade-up results for analysis
Don't Do This
- Trade up without calculating probabilities
- Ignore low-value outcomes ("I'll just hit the good one")
- Use high-float inputs expecting FN output
- Forget that StatTrak must match
- Assume yesterday's prices still apply
- Chase losses with increasingly risky trade-ups
- Neglect the impact of Steam Market fees
StatTrak Trade Ups
StatTrak trade-ups follow the same mechanics as regular trade-ups with one critical rule: all 10 inputs must be StatTrak, and the output will always be StatTrak.
StatTrak Trade-Up Considerations
- Higher input costs: StatTrak skins are rarer and more expensive than their non-StatTrak counterparts
- Higher output values: StatTrak outputs also command premium prices
- Limited availability: Finding 10 StatTrak skins from specific collections can be challenging
- Market depth issues: StatTrak markets are less liquid, affecting both buying and selling
StatTrak Mixing Rule
You cannot mix StatTrak and non-StatTrak skins in a trade-up. The game enforces this strictly—if you add one StatTrak skin, all others must also be StatTrak. This prevents "diluting" StatTrak trade-ups with cheaper non-StatTrak inputs.
StatTrak trade-ups are generally riskier due to higher capital requirements but can yield exceptional returns when successful. The StatTrak probability mechanics in cases (10% base rate) don't apply to trade-ups since the output StatTrak status is determined entirely by input types. For more on StatTrak probability in cases, see our Knife Odds Guide.
Market Analysis Tips
Successful trade-ups require understanding market dynamics. Prices fluctuate based on supply, demand, and external factors.
Factors Affecting Trade-Up Economics
| Factor | Effect on Inputs | Effect on Outputs |
|---|---|---|
| New case release | Prices drop for case skins (more supply) | May drop if outputs overlap |
| Case discontinued | Prices gradually rise (supply decreases) | Outputs become rarer, prices rise |
| Major tournament | Team stickers affect related skin demand | Pro player skins may spike |
| Steam sale | Prices often drop temporarily | May see selling pressure |
| CS2 update | Meta changes can affect skin popularity | Updated weapons see demand shifts |
Research Resources
- Steam Community Market - Official price data and transaction history
- CSGOStash - Collection information and skin databases
- CSGOFloat - Float value databases and trade-up calculators
- Steam Charts - Player count trends affecting market activity
Long-Term Perspective
The CS2 skin economy is mature but still evolving. Successful traders treat trade-ups as a long-term activity, tracking performance over hundreds of attempts rather than expecting instant profits. Document your trades, analyze patterns, and continuously refine your strategy based on data rather than emotion.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a CS2 trade up contract?
A trade-up contract is a CS2 feature allowing you to exchange 10 skins of the same rarity tier for one skin of the next higher tier. The output is randomly selected from possible outcomes based on the collections of your input skins. Each input contributes a 10% probability weight toward outcomes from its collection.
How is the output float value calculated?
The output float uses the formula: Output Float = (Average Input Float × (Max Float - Min Float)) + Min Float. Your 10 inputs' float values are averaged, then scaled to fit within the output skin's specific float range. Lower average input floats generally result in better wear conditions on the output.
Can you profit from trade-up contracts?
Yes, profitable trade-ups exist when expected value (sum of probability × value for all outcomes) exceeds input costs. This requires careful research into collection contents, current market prices, and probability calculations. Many trade-ups are unprofitable, but strategic selection creates opportunities.
What skins can I use in a trade-up?
You can use weapon skins that are: (1) the same rarity tier, (2) not Covert/Red (no higher tier exists), (3) not knives, gloves, or special items, and (4) from collections with items in the next tier. All 10 inputs must match in StatTrak status—you cannot mix StatTrak and non-StatTrak skins.
How do I predict which skin I'll get?
Each input contributes 10% probability toward outcomes from its collection. If you use 7 skins from Collection A (with 2 possible outputs) and 3 from Collection B (with 1 output), there's a 70% chance of hitting Collection A (35% each skin) and 30% for Collection B's skin. Calculate all possibilities before trading up.
Do trade-ups have the same odds as case openings?
No, trade-ups work completely differently. Case openings have fixed probabilities set by Valve (see our Case Odds Explained guide). Trade-up probabilities are determined by your input selection—you control the odds by choosing which collections and how many skins from each.
Why did I get a Battle-Scarred output from Factory New inputs?
This happens when the output skin has a high minimum float. Even if your inputs are all Factory New (low floats), if the output skin only spawns at 0.45-1.00 float, your calculated output float gets scaled to that range. Always check the output skin's float range before trading up.
Are StatTrak trade-ups worth it?
StatTrak trade-ups require higher capital (ST inputs cost more) but can yield premium outputs. They're more complex due to limited market availability and liquidity issues. StatTrak trade-ups can be profitable but require more careful analysis and typically suit experienced traders with larger budgets.
Last updated: December 2025