CS2 Trade-Up Calculator

How to Use This Calculator

Step 1: Select Your Input Rarity

Choose the rarity tier of the skins you want to trade up. Trade-ups can only be performed with Mil-Spec (Blue), Restricted (Purple), or Classified (Pink) skins. Covert (Red) skins cannot be traded up as there's no higher rarity tier.

Step 2: Add Your 10 Input Skins

Add exactly 10 skins of the selected rarity. For each skin, enter:

• Skin Name: The name of the skin (for your reference)
• Collection: Which collection the skin belongs to (determines possible outcomes)
• Float Value: The skin's float value (affects output wear condition)
• Price: What you paid for the skin (for profit calculation)

Step 3: Review Possible Outcomes

Based on the collections you've selected, the calculator shows all possible output skins. Each collection contributes equally to the probability pool. If you add 5 skins from Collection A and 5 from Collection B, you have a 50% chance of getting an outcome from each.

Step 4: Enter Output Prices

For accurate profitability analysis, enter current market prices for each possible outcome. Check the Steam Community Market or third-party sites like CSGOFloat for current pricing.

Step 5: Analyze Results

The calculator computes:

• Total Input Cost: Sum of all your input skin prices
• Expected Value: Probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes
• Expected Profit/Loss: Expected Value minus Input Cost
• ROI: Return on Investment percentage

Trade-Up Mechanics Explained

The Collection System

Every CS2 skin belongs to a specific collection (e.g., The 2021 Dust 2 Collection, The Dreams & Nightmares Collection). When you trade up, the output skin must come from one of the collections represented in your input skins. Each input skin has an equal 10% chance of determining which collection the output comes from.

Probability Calculation

If you use 7 skins from Collection A (which has 3 possible outputs at the next tier) and 3 skins from Collection B (which has 2 possible outputs), your probabilities are:

• 70% chance the output comes from Collection A
• 30% chance the output comes from Collection B
• Within Collection A: each of the 3 skins has a 70% ÷ 3 = 23.33% chance
• Within Collection B: each of the 2 skins has a 30% ÷ 2 = 15% chance

Float Value Formula

The output skin's float is calculated using the average float of all input skins. According to Valve's skin documentation, each skin has a minimum and maximum possible float value. The formula is:

Output Float = (Average Input Float × (Max Float - Min Float)) + Min Float

This means lower input floats generally produce better-looking output skins, which often command higher prices.

StatTrak Considerations

If all 10 input skins are StatTrak, the output will also be StatTrak. If any input skin is non-StatTrak, the output will be non-StatTrak. This is a critical consideration as StatTrak skins typically have different (often higher) prices. For more on StatTrak mechanics, see our StatTrak Complete Guide.

Trade-Up Strategy Tips

Finding Profitable Trade-Ups

Profitable trade-ups typically share these characteristics:

• Imbalanced Collections: One collection has high-value outputs while another has low input costs
• Float Optimization: Low-float inputs can create high-value minimal wear outputs
• Market Inefficiencies: Temporary price discrepancies between input and output skins
• Rare Skin Targeting: Some skins are only obtainable through trade-ups

Risk Management

Even positive EV trade-ups can result in losses due to variance. Consider these risk factors:

• Variance: A 10% chance outcome might never occur in 20 attempts, or happen 5 times in a row
• Market Movement: Prices can change between when you buy inputs and sell outputs
• Transaction Fees: Steam Market takes 15% from sales; factor this into calculations
• Liquidity: High-value items may take longer to sell at expected prices

Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Ignoring Steam Market fees (13% game fee + 2% Steam fee)
• Not accounting for float value impact on output prices
• Mixing StatTrak and non-StatTrak skins accidentally
• Using outdated price data for calculations
• Overestimating the value of low-probability outcomes

Frequently Asked Questions