CS2 Unbox Target Tracker
Set your CS2 unboxing goal and calculate the exact probability of achieving it. This tool uses binomial probability mathematics to show how many cases you need to reach 50%, 75%, 90%, or 99% confidence of getting your target item. Plan your sessions with realistic expectations backed by math.
Target Achievement Calculator
Set your goal and see your probability of success
Total amount you're willing to spend (treat as entertainment cost)
Total cost to open one case (case price + key)
How many of this item do you want to get?
Override default odds with a custom percentage
Your Target Analysis
Confidence Level Milestones
How many cases you need for each confidence level of getting at least 1 knife:
| Confidence Level | Cases Needed | Cost | Status |
|---|
Probability Curve: Your Chances Over Time
Budget Comparison
Probability Analysis
Critical Reality Check
Reaching a 50% probability doesn't mean you'll get the item – it means half of players in your situation won't get it either. Even at 90% confidence, 1 in 10 players walk away empty-handed. Never spend money you can't afford to lose, and remember that probability does not guarantee outcomes.
Understanding Target Probability in CS2 Cases
When you set a goal like "get a knife," you're essentially asking: "What are my chances of getting at least one knife if I open X cases?" This is a binomial probability problem, and the mathematics are surprisingly unfavorable for rare items.
The Math Behind This Tool
For any given item with drop probability p, the probability of getting at least one in n cases is calculated using the complement rule:
The Probability Formula
P(at least 1 success) = 1 - (1 - p)ⁿ
Where p = drop probability per case, n = number of cases opened
For example, with a knife probability of 0.26% (0.0026):
- 100 cases: 1 - (0.9974)^100 = 22.9% chance of at least one knife
- 385 cases: 1 - (0.9974)^385 = 63.2% chance (this is "1x expected")
- 770 cases: 1 - (0.9974)^770 = 86.5% chance (2x expected)
Notice something important: even opening 385 cases (the "expected" amount for one knife) only gives you a 63% chance. You need to open significantly more to reach high confidence levels.
CS2 Official Drop Rates
Valve publicly disclosed CS2 case drop rates in China due to regulatory requirements. These rates, verified by the gaming community and required under Chinese disclosure laws, are used in all our calculators:
| Rarity Tier | Drop Rate | Approx. Odds | Expected Cases |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knife / Gloves (Gold) | 0.26% | 1 in 385 | 385 cases |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 1 in 156 | 156 cases |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 1 in 31 | 31 cases |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 1 in 6 | 6 cases |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 1 in 1.25 | 1-2 cases |
StatTrak versions have a 10% chance when rolling any rarity tier, making StatTrak knives approximately 0.026% (1 in 3,850 cases).
Why "Expected Value" Doesn't Mean "Guaranteed"
A common misconception is that if you open 385 cases (the expected number for a knife), you're "due" for one. This is the gambler's fallacy. In reality:
- Each case is an independent event – previous results don't affect future outcomes
- Opening 385 cases gives you roughly a 63% chance, meaning 37% of people who try this will get zero knives
- To reach 95% confidence for at least one knife, you'd need approximately 1,150 cases (~$2,875)
The Diminishing Returns of Probability
Probability increases follow a curve of diminishing returns. Going from 0% to 50% is relatively "cheap," but going from 90% to 99% costs significantly more:
| Confidence Jump | Additional Cases (Knife) | Additional Cost |
|---|---|---|
| 0% → 50% | ~266 cases | ~$665 |
| 50% → 75% | ~268 cases | ~$670 |
| 75% → 90% | ~352 cases | ~$880 |
| 90% → 99% | ~884 cases | ~$2,210 |
This demonstrates why chasing "certainty" in case opening becomes exponentially expensive. The last 9% of confidence costs more than the first 90%.
Using This Tool Responsibly
Set Realistic Expectations
This tool exists to provide transparency, not encouragement. When you see that your $250 budget gives you only a 24% chance at a knife, the intended reaction is realistic planning, not "I should spend more to get better odds."
The Entertainment Budget Framework
Professional gambling advice from organizations like BeGambleAware recommends treating any gambling-like activity (including loot boxes) as entertainment spending:
- Only use money allocated for entertainment – never essentials or savings
- Set a hard budget before starting and stick to it regardless of outcomes
- Accept that the money is "spent" the moment you begin – any returns are bonuses
- Never chase losses by exceeding your budget
Related Tools for Informed Decisions
Combine this target tracker with our other calculators for complete analysis:
- Case Odds Calculator – Detailed probability breakdowns for all rarity tiers
- Bankroll Calculator – Set responsible session budgets and limits
- Case ROI Calculator – Calculate expected value and typical losses
- Ruin Probability Calculator – See your chances of going completely broke
- Responsible Gaming Guide – Complete resource for healthy gaming habits
Important Disclaimer
This tool provides mathematical calculations for educational purposes only. CS2 case opening involves financial risk and is classified as gambling in many jurisdictions. Never spend more than you can afford to lose. If you're under 18, case opening is not for you. If gambling is causing problems, contact NCPG or a local support service.
Last updated: January 2026