CS2 Skin Rarity Tiers Explained
A complete guide to understanding Counter-Strike 2's color-coded rarity system. Learn what each tier means, their drop probabilities, how rarity affects pricing, and how the system works across cases, collections, and trade-ups.
What Are Rarity Tiers?
Rarity tiers in Counter-Strike 2 are a classification system that categorizes weapon skins based on how difficult they are to obtain. Each tier is identified by a distinct color, making it easy to quickly assess a skin's relative scarcity at a glance.
The rarity system serves multiple purposes in CS2's economy. It determines drop probabilities when opening cases, establishes a baseline for skin value, and controls progression in trade-up contracts. Understanding rarity tiers is fundamental to making informed decisions about case opening, trading, and skin investment.
Valve introduced standardized drop rate disclosure following regulatory pressure from countries like Belgium and the Netherlands, which classify loot boxes as gambling. This transparency allows players to understand exactly what they're getting into before opening cases. For a deep dive into the probability mathematics, see our Case Odds Explained guide.
Complete Tier Breakdown
CS2 uses seven distinct rarity tiers, each with its own color code and drop characteristics. The tiers apply differently depending on whether you're opening weapon cases or receiving drops from collections.
Rare Special Items (Gold)
RarestThe gold tier contains all knives, gloves, and other rare special items. These are the aspirational drops that make case opening exciting. A single knife can range from $50 to several thousand dollars depending on the pattern and wear.
Covert (Red)
Ultra RareCovert skins represent the pinnacle of regular weapon skin rarity. These are typically the headline skins of case releases with high-quality designs and substantial market value. Often includes popular weapon types like AK-47 and AWP.
Classified (Pink)
RareClassified skins are considered "good" drops by most players. They often feature attractive designs on popular weapons. Market values vary significantly based on design popularity and the specific weapon.
Restricted (Purple)
UncommonRestricted skins offer a middle ground between common and rare. They're frequent enough to obtain but interesting enough to collect. Some highly desired Restricted skins can command premium prices despite their tier.
Mil-Spec (Blue)
CommonMil-Spec skins are the most common case drops, representing approximately 4 out of every 5 openings. These typically have simple designs and low market value, often worth less than the key cost to open the case.
Industrial Grade (Light Blue)
Collection OnlyIndustrial Grade skins only appear in weapon collections (not cases). They can be obtained from in-game drops at match end or through collection trade-ups. Generally very affordable due to high availability.
Consumer Grade (White/Gray)
Collection OnlyConsumer Grade is the lowest rarity tier, exclusive to collections. These are the most common drops in the game, often obtained freely from playing matches. Most are worth just a few cents on the market.
Case Rarity System
Weapon cases in CS2 use five rarity tiers: Mil-Spec (Blue), Restricted (Purple), Classified (Pink), Covert (Red), and Rare Special Items (Gold). Consumer Grade and Industrial Grade skins never appear in weapon cases.
Standard Case Structure
Most CS2 weapon cases follow a consistent structure:
- 7 Mil-Spec (Blue) skins: The common tier, representing nearly 80% of drops
- 5 Restricted (Purple) skins: The uncommon tier at about 16%
- 3 Classified (Pink) skins: The rare tier at 3.2%
- 2 Covert (Red) skins: The ultra-rare tier at 0.64%
- Special pool (Gold): Knives/gloves at 0.26%
This structure totals 17 regular weapon skins plus a pool of rare special items. The total number of items varies slightly between cases, but the probability distribution remains constant.
Consistent Probabilities
Regardless of which case you open, the rarity tier probabilities are identical. The Kilowatt Case has the same 0.26% knife odds as the Dreams & Nightmares Case or any other weapon case. What differs is only the specific items available within each tier.
Collection Rarity System
Weapon collections work differently from cases. Collections include all seven rarity tiers and distribute drops based on map-specific or operation-specific pools. These skins can be obtained through:
- Weekly care packages: Free drops earned by playing matches
- Operation rewards: During active operations
- Trade-up contracts: Converting 10 lower-tier skins to one higher-tier
Collection Examples
Map Collections
- Dust 2 Collection
- Nuke Collection
- Mirage Collection
- Inferno Collection
Map-based collections contain skins themed around specific maps and can drop from playing on those maps.
Operation Collections
- Operation Riptide Collection
- Operation Broken Fang Collection
- Havoc Collection
- Control Collection
Operation collections are released with specific operations and often contain desirable skins across all rarity tiers.
For more information on how collections factor into trade-ups, see our comprehensive Trade-Up Contract Guide.
Drop Rates by Tier
Understanding exact drop rates helps set realistic expectations for case opening. These are Valve's officially disclosed probabilities, verified through regulatory compliance in multiple countries.
| Rarity Tier | Color | Drop Rate | 1 in X Cases | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Special Items | Gold | 0.26% | 1 in 385 | Knives, gloves, rare specials |
| Covert | Red | 0.64% | 1 in 156 | Headline skins, high value |
| Classified | Pink | 3.2% | 1 in 31 | Good drops, varied value |
| Restricted | Purple | 15.98% | 1 in 6.3 | Mid-tier, common enough |
| Mil-Spec | Blue | 79.92% | 4 in 5 | Most common case drop |
Cumulative Probability
The "1 in X cases" statistic represents an average, not a guarantee. Due to the independent nature of each case opening, there's significant variance. You could open 500 cases without a knife, or get one on your first try.
For a deeper understanding of probability mathematics and cumulative odds, visit our Case Odds Calculator to run specific scenarios.
How Rarity Affects Pricing
While rarity is a significant factor in skin pricing, it's far from the only one. Market dynamics are complex, and several factors interact to determine what a skin is worth.
Factors Beyond Rarity
- Design popularity: A visually striking Restricted skin can outprice a less appealing Covert
- Weapon type: AK-47, AWP, and M4A4 skins command premium prices across all rarities
- Float value: Wear condition significantly affects price within the same skin
- Case availability: Discontinued cases increase skin values over time
- Pattern index: Special patterns on certain skins (like Case Hardened) create extreme value variation
- StatTrak: StatTrak variants typically cost 2-5x more than regular versions
Price Range Expectations
| Tier | Entry Price | Average | High End | Exceptional |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $50 | $150-400 | $1,000-5,000 | $50,000+ |
| Covert | $10 | $30-100 | $200-500 | $2,000+ |
| Classified | $3 | $10-40 | $50-150 | $500+ |
| Restricted | $0.50 | $2-10 | $15-40 | $100+ |
| Mil-Spec | $0.03 | $0.10-1 | $2-5 | $20+ |
Market Volatility
CS2 skin prices fluctuate based on market conditions, major updates, new case releases, and esports events. Use current Steam Community Market prices for accurate valuations, as these examples represent general ranges rather than fixed values.
Rarity in Trade-Up Contracts
Trade-up contracts allow you to exchange 10 skins of one rarity tier for 1 skin of the next higher tier. This system directly interacts with the rarity structure and creates interesting strategic opportunities.
Trade-Up Rarity Progression
- 10 Consumer Grade (Gray) → 1 Industrial Grade (Light Blue)
- 10 Industrial Grade (Light Blue) → 1 Mil-Spec (Blue)
- 10 Mil-Spec (Blue) → 1 Restricted (Purple)
- 10 Restricted (Purple) → 1 Classified (Pink)
- 10 Classified (Pink) → 1 Covert (Red)
Trade-Up Limitations
Covert (Red) skins cannot be traded up further. There is no legitimate way to obtain knives or gloves through trade-up contracts. The Rare Special Items (Gold) tier is exclusively accessible through case openings or direct market purchase.
Trade-ups involve complex calculations including float value averaging and collection-based outcome pools. For complete details on maximizing trade-up value, see our Trade-Up Contract Guide.
Visual Identification Guide
CS2 makes rarity identification straightforward through consistent color coding across all interfaces. Here's where you'll see rarity colors and how to quickly identify them.
In-Game Indicators
- Inventory background: Items display with their rarity color as the card background
- Case preview: The case opening wheel shows rarity colors behind each item
- Trade window: Item cards are color-coded by rarity for quick assessment
- Inspect menu: The weapon name displays in the rarity color
- Kill feed: Weapon icons show subtle rarity highlighting
Steam Market Indicators
On the Steam Community Market, rarity is indicated through:
- Item quality tags (Mil-Spec Grade, Restricted, etc.)
- Color-coded item name backgrounds in search results
- The "Exterior" quality combined with rarity grade in item descriptions
Quick Color Reference
| Color | Tier Name | Hex Code | Quick ID |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold/Yellow | Rare Special Items | #f59e0b | Knives, Gloves |
| Red | Covert | #ef4444 | Rarest weapon skins |
| Pink | Classified | #ec4899 | Rare weapon skins |
| Purple | Restricted | #8b5cf6 | Uncommon drops |
| Blue | Mil-Spec | #3b82f6 | Common case drops |
| Light Blue | Industrial Grade | #38bdf8 | Collections only |
| White/Gray | Consumer Grade | #9ca3af | Most common overall |
Special & Rare Items
Beyond the standard rarity tiers, CS2 features several special item categories with unique properties and extreme scarcity.
Knives & Gloves (Gold Tier)
The Rare Special Items pool contains all knives and gloves. At 0.26% drop rate, these are the most sought-after case drops. For complete information on knife drop mechanics, see our Knife Odds Guide.
Souvenir Weapons
Souvenir skins are special variants that drop exclusively during CS2 Major Championships. They feature tournament stickers including event branding, team logos, and MVP autographs. Souvenir items follow the same rarity tiers but command premium prices due to their limited availability.
Contraband (Discontinued)
The Contraband tier (orange/red-orange) was used for items that Valve removed from case drops. The only Contraband item is the M4A4 | Howl, which was removed due to copyright issues. According to gaming industry reports, no new Contraband items have been created since, making the Howl uniquely valuable.
Agent Skins & Music Kits
Agent skins (character models) and music kits don't follow the standard weapon rarity system. Agents have their own tier classifications, and music kits are typically classified as "High Grade" with separate pricing dynamics.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the CS2 skin rarity tiers?
CS2 uses seven rarity tiers from most to least common: Consumer Grade (white/gray), Industrial Grade (light blue), Mil-Spec (blue), Restricted (purple), Classified (pink), Covert (red), and Rare Special Items (gold) for knives and gloves. Cases only contain the top five tiers starting from Mil-Spec.
How does rarity affect CS2 skin prices?
Higher rarity generally means higher prices due to lower drop rates, but it's not the only factor. Design popularity, weapon type, float value, case availability, and special patterns all influence price. Some popular Classified skins can exceed Covert prices if demand is high enough.
What is the rarest tier in CS2?
The Rare Special Items tier (gold color) is the rarest at 0.26% drop rate (1 in 385 cases). This tier contains all knives and gloves. Among regular weapon skins, Covert (red) is the rarest at 0.64% (1 in 156 cases).
Do all CS2 cases have the same rarity odds?
Yes, all CS2 weapon cases use identical rarity tier probabilities. Mil-Spec is always 79.92%, Restricted is 15.98%, Classified is 3.2%, Covert is 0.64%, and Rare Special Items is 0.26%. Only the specific items within each tier differ between cases.
Why don't cases have Consumer Grade skins?
Cases are designed as premium content with higher production value skins. Consumer Grade and Industrial Grade skins are distributed through free in-game drops and collection rewards instead. This maintains the value proposition of paid case openings while ensuring free players can still obtain skins.
Can I trade up to get knives?
No, trade-up contracts cannot produce knives or gloves. The highest tier achievable through trade-ups is Covert (red). Rare Special Items (gold tier) are only obtainable through case openings or direct market purchase. This limitation is intentional and cannot be circumvented.
What is Contraband rarity?
Contraband is a special tier for items removed from case drops. Only the M4A4 | Howl has this classification, given after Valve removed it due to copyright issues. No new Contraband items have been created, making the Howl uniquely scarce and valuable.
Are StatTrak versions rarer than regular skins?
Yes. StatTrak has a 10% chance on any drop, making StatTrak versions 10x rarer than regular versions of the same skin and tier. For example, a StatTrak Covert has 0.064% odds (0.64% × 10%), or about 1 in 1,563 cases.
Related CS2 Guides & Tools
Explore more CS2 educational content:
- Case Odds Explained - Deep dive into CS2 probability mathematics
- Knife Odds Guide - Everything about rare special item drop rates
- Float Values Explained - How wear condition affects skin appearance and value
- Trade-Up Contract Guide - Maximize value from trade-up contracts
- Case Odds Calculator - Calculate probabilities for your scenarios
- All CS2 Tools - Browse our complete toolkit
Final Perspective:
"Understanding CS2's rarity system is foundational knowledge for any serious trader or collector. The color-coded tiers create clear expectations about drop frequency and baseline value. But remember: rarity is just one piece of the puzzle. The most valuable skins combine rarity with desirable designs, popular weapons, and pristine wear conditions. Master the rarity system, then layer on knowledge of float values, pattern indexes, and market dynamics to truly understand CS2's economy."
Important Disclaimer
This guide is for educational purposes only. CS2 case opening involves financial risk with negative expected value. Only participate with money you can afford to lose. If you're under 18, do not open cases. For help with gambling-related issues, visit BeGambleAware.org.
Last updated: December 2025