CS2 Rarity Visualizer
See CS2 case opening probabilities come to life with interactive visual demonstrations. This tool helps you truly understand how rare knife drops, Covert skins, and other items really are by showing probabilities through dot grids, animated simulations, and comparative displays.
Interactive Probability Visualizer
Select a rarity tier to visualize its drop probability
Knife/Glove Drop Visualization (1 in 385)
Probability Stats
Simulation Results
Understanding "1 in X" Odds
Rarity Tier Comparison
Why Visual Understanding Matters
Percentages like "0.26%" can be hard to grasp intuitively. Research from the National Institutes of Health shows that visual representations of probability help people make better risk assessments. When you see 385 squares with only 1 highlighted, the rarity becomes more tangible than a percentage alone.
Understanding CS2 Drop Probabilities
CS2 case opening uses a weighted random number generator to determine drops. Valve officially disclosed the drop rates in 2017 following regulatory pressure from gaming commissions. This transparency allows us to visualize exactly what your chances are.
Official CS2 Case Drop Rates
| Rarity Tier | Drop Chance | 1 in X Odds | Cases for 50% Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | ~1 in 1.25 | 1 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | ~1 in 6 | 4 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | ~1 in 31 | 22 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | ~1 in 156 | 108 |
| Rare Special (Gold) | 0.26% | ~1 in 385 | 267 |
These odds are consistent across all CS2 weapon cases. The "1 in X" column shows how many cases you'd need to open, on average, to receive one item of that rarity. Learn more about these probabilities in our Case Odds Explained guide.
How to Use This Visualizer
1. Explore Different Rarities
Click the rarity tabs to see how different drop rates look visually. Notice how the dot grid changes dramatically between Mil-Spec (nearly all highlighted) and Knife/Glove (a single dot in hundreds).
2. Run Simulations
Click "Simulate 100 Cases" or "Simulate 500 Cases" to watch an animated demonstration of case opening. The simulation uses the real CS2 drop rates to show what outcomes you might realistically expect. Each run will be different due to random variance.
3. Understand Variance
Run multiple simulations and notice how results differ. Sometimes you'll get more drops than expected, sometimes fewer. This demonstrates the fundamental nature of probability - short-term results are unpredictable, but long-term averages converge to the expected rates.
4. Compare to Your Budget
Use our Bankroll Calculator and Cost-to-Odds Calculator to see how many cases your budget allows and what realistic expectations you should have.
The Psychology of Probability
Humans are notoriously bad at understanding small probabilities. Research published in Econometrica by Kahneman and Tversky demonstrated that people tend to overweight rare events in their decision-making. This is why visual tools like this are valuable - they help counteract cognitive biases.
The Gambler's Fallacy
Opening 384 cases without a knife does NOT mean you're "due" for one on case 385. Each case opening is an independent event with the same 0.26% probability. Past results do not influence future outcomes. Use our Streak Calculator to understand why dry streaks are more common than you might think.
Practical Applications
Before Opening Cases
Use this visualizer to set realistic expectations. If you plan to open 50 cases, visualize what 50 dots look like in the grid - that's your sample size. Compare it to the expected "1 in X" for your target item.
Understanding Value
Combine visual probability understanding with our Case ROI Calculator to see both the mathematical and intuitive picture. When you understand both the odds AND the economics, you can make informed decisions.
Teaching Tool
This visualizer is excellent for explaining to friends or younger players why case opening is statistically unfavorable. Showing someone 385 squares with only 1 highlighted is more impactful than quoting "0.26%".
Related Tools & Guides
Use these complementary tools for complete CS2 case analysis:
- Case Odds Calculator - Calculate exact probabilities for multiple case openings
- Streak Calculator - Understand dry streak probabilities and variance
- Case ROI Calculator - Calculate expected value and return on investment
- Cost-to-Odds Calculator - Find how much you'd spend to reach target probabilities
- Case Opening Simulator - Practice opening cases without real money
- Case Odds Explained - Comprehensive guide to CS2 probability mechanics
- Knife Odds Guide - Deep dive into knife and rare item drop rates
Frequently Asked Questions
Are these the real CS2 drop rates?
Yes. These are the officially disclosed drop rates from Valve, published in October 2017. The rates are: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, and Rare Special Items (Knives/Gloves) 0.26%. These rates apply to all weapon cases in CS2.
Why does the simulation sometimes give different results?
That's the nature of probability and random variation. Even with a 0.26% chance per case, sometimes you'll get lucky and hit a knife in your first 100 cases, and sometimes you'll go 1000+ without one. This tool demonstrates that real-world variance can be significant, especially with small sample sizes.
What does "1 in 385" actually mean?
It means that on average, over a very large number of cases, you'd expect 1 knife per 385 cases opened. However, this is an average - you could get a knife on your first case, or it could take 1000+ cases. Each case is an independent event with the same 0.26% probability.
Is StatTrak calculated separately?
Yes. StatTrak is a 10% chance applied independently to whatever rarity you receive. So a StatTrak knife requires hitting the 0.26% knife chance AND the 10% StatTrak roll, giving 0.026% odds (1 in ~3,850). Learn more in our StatTrak Guide.
How do I calculate my personal odds for X cases?
Use the formula: Probability of at least one = 1 - (1 - dropRate)^numberOfCases. For example, 100 cases with 0.26% knife odds: 1 - (0.9974)^100 = 22.9% chance of at least one knife. Our Case Odds Calculator does this math for you.
Why should I use this tool before opening cases?
Visual understanding helps set realistic expectations. When you see how rare knives actually are - one highlighted dot among 385 - you're less likely to be surprised or frustrated by normal variance. This mental preparation can help prevent chasing losses or overspending.
Responsible Gaming Reminder
CS2 case opening involves real money and unfavorable odds. Only spend what you can afford to lose. If you're under 18, do not open cases or gamble. If gambling causes you distress, visit BeGambleAware for support.
Last updated: December 2025