CS2 Major Pick'Em Guide: Complete Tournament Prediction System
The Major Pick'Em Challenge is one of CS2's most engaging community events, allowing fans to predict tournament outcomes and earn exclusive commemorative coins. This comprehensive guide covers everything you need to know about participating in Pick'Em, from understanding the challenge types to maximizing your chances of achieving the coveted Diamond coin.
Table of Contents
What Is CS2 Major Pick'Em?
The Major Pick'Em Challenge is Valve's official prediction game that runs during CS2 Major Championships. Participants use team and player stickers to make predictions about tournament outcomes, competing for points that determine their final coin tier. The tradition dates back to 2014 with the EMS One Katowice Major, making it one of Counter-Strike's longest-running community engagements.
Unlike traditional fantasy sports, Pick'Em focuses on match and stage outcomes rather than individual player statistics. This makes it accessible to casual viewers while still rewarding those with deep knowledge of the competitive CS2 scene. The system has evolved significantly over the years, with Valve refining challenge types and point distributions to balance skill and luck.
Why Pick'Em Matters
Beyond the competitive aspect, Pick'Em serves multiple purposes in the CS2 ecosystem. It drives engagement during Majors, supports the esports scene through sticker sales (with a portion going to teams and players), and creates collectible coins that serve as permanent records of your tournament predictions. Many veteran players proudly display their collection of Pick'Em coins as badges of long-term game engagement.
The Pick'Em Challenge directly connects to the Major sticker system. To make predictions, you must own and apply the relevant team or player stickers, which come from tournament capsules. This creates a unique interplay between the collectible sticker market and tournament engagement, as both casual collectors and serious predictors purchase stickers during Major events.
Pick'Em Coin Tiers
Your total points across all challenges determine which commemorative coin tier you receive. These coins are permanent inventory items that display your achievement and can be showcased on your CS2 profile. Each Major features a unique coin design themed around the tournament.
Bronze
Silver
Gold
Diamond
The Diamond coin is the most prestigious Pick'Em achievement, requiring both skill and some luck to attain. Tournament upsets can make or break Diamond aspirations, which is why the percentage of players achieving this tier varies significantly between Majors. Some tournaments with many upsets see Diamond rates drop below 5%, while more predictable events can push it above 10%.
Maximizing Your Coin Tier
Understanding the point thresholds is crucial for strategic decision-making:
- 5 points (Bronze): Achievable with just a few correct predictions—most participants reach this
- 25 points (Silver): Requires solid performance across multiple challenge types
- 50 points (Gold): Needs strong predictions in most stages with few major misses
- 75 points (Diamond): Demands near-optimal predictions, often requiring some upset calls
Challenge Types
Pick'Em challenges are divided into several categories, each testing different aspects of tournament knowledge. Point values vary by challenge difficulty, with harder predictions offering greater rewards. The exact challenge structure can vary between Majors, but most follow a similar pattern.
Team Predictions
Predict which teams will advance from each stage of the tournament. Typically covers Challengers Stage, Legends Stage, and Playoffs advancement. You select teams you believe will qualify from group stages.
3-10 points eachMatch Winner
Predict the winner of specific high-profile matches, typically in the playoff bracket. These are straightforward predictions where you select which team wins a best-of-3 series.
1-4 points eachTournament Champion
The ultimate prediction: pick the team that will win the entire Major. This high-risk, high-reward challenge is worth the most points but requires predicting the entire tournament outcome correctly.
10-16 points3-0 / 0-3 Picks
In Swiss format stages, predict which team will go undefeated (3-0) and which will be eliminated without winning (0-3). These bonus challenges reward knowledge of team strength disparities.
5-8 points eachStage-by-Stage Breakdown
Challengers Stage
The opening stage where lower-seeded teams compete. You typically predict which teams advance to the next stage from this pool. Swiss format means 3 wins to advance, 3 losses to eliminate.
Legends Stage
Higher-seeded teams (Legends from the previous Major) join advancing Challengers. Same Swiss format, with predictions for advancing teams. This stage often features more competitive matches.
Playoffs
Single-elimination bracket with the top 8 teams. Match winner predictions become available for quarterfinals, semifinals, and the Grand Final. Championship prediction pays off here.
How to Participate
Participating in Pick'Em requires purchasing the Viewer Pass and relevant stickers for the Major. Here's the step-by-step process to get started with your tournament predictions.
Step 1: Purchase the Viewer Pass
The Major Viewer Pass (typically priced at $9.99) is required to make Pick'Em predictions. This pass also unlocks other features like souvenir drop eligibility and the ability to upgrade your coin through challenges. Purchase it from the in-game store or Steam Store when the Major begins.
Step 2: Acquire Team Stickers
To make team predictions, you need stickers for the teams you want to select. These come from Team Sticker Capsules purchased in-game or from the Steam Community Market. Each team at the Major has stickers available in four qualities: Paper, Glitter, Holo, and Gold (Foil).
Step 3: Make Your Predictions
Navigate to the Pick'Em section in your CS2 main menu. Apply stickers to the prediction slots by selecting teams for each challenge. Remember that predictions lock when the relevant stage begins—you cannot change picks after deadlines.
Estimated Participation Costs
Deadline Warning
Prediction deadlines are strictly enforced. Once a stage begins, all predictions for that stage are locked permanently. Valve typically announces exact cutoff times on the official CS2 Blog. Set reminders and make your picks early to avoid missing deadlines due to technical issues or time zone confusion.
Scoring System
Points are awarded for correct predictions, with more difficult or consequential predictions offering higher point values. The exact scoring can vary between Majors, but the general structure remains consistent.
| Challenge Type | Points Per Correct | Maximum Points | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Challengers Stage Advancing (7 teams) | 1 point each | 7 points | Medium |
| Legends Stage Advancing (7 teams) | 1 point each | 7 points | Medium |
| 3-0 Team Prediction | 5 points | 5 points | Hard |
| 0-3 Team Prediction | 5 points | 5 points | Hard |
| Quarterfinal Match Winners | 4 points each | 16 points | Medium |
| Semifinal Match Winners | 6 points each | 12 points | Medium-Hard |
| Grand Final Winner | 8 points | 8 points | Hard |
| Tournament Champion | 16 points | 16 points | Very Hard |
Note that the Tournament Champion prediction is separate from the Grand Final Winner—you make this pick at the start and get points only if your chosen team wins the entire event. This creates interesting strategic decisions about whether to pick favorites (safer but lower potential reward) or dark horses (riskier but more satisfying if correct).
Understanding Point Distribution
With a maximum possible score around 75-80 points (varying by Major format), reaching Diamond requires getting most predictions correct. A typical Diamond path includes: most advancing teams correct, successful 3-0/0-3 picks, accurate playoff bracket predictions, and the champion pick. Missing just a few key predictions can drop you from Diamond to Gold territory.
Prediction Strategies
Successful Pick'Em performance combines knowledge, research, and strategic risk management. Here are proven approaches to maximize your point potential.
📊 Research Team Form
Recent tournament results matter more than historical reputation. Check team performances from the last 2-3 months on sites like HLTV.org. Teams on hot streaks or with roster changes can surprise.
🎲 Hedge Your 3-0/0-3
Don't pick the tournament favorite for 3-0—they face harder opponents earlier. Look for mid-tier teams with favorable group draws. For 0-3, avoid obvious weak teams everyone picks, as they might steal one match.
🌍 Consider Seeding
Swiss format seeding affects matchups significantly. Higher seeds face weaker opponents initially, making advancement predictions more reliable for top-ranked teams early on.
🏠 Factor in Crowd Support
Home crowd advantage is real in CS2. Teams playing at home-region Majors often overperform expectations. Conversely, jet lag and unfamiliar environments can affect distant teams.
📈 Watch Recent LANs
LAN performance differs from online. Some teams excel on stage while others struggle with pressure. Prior Major experience is valuable—veteran rosters handle the atmosphere better.
⚖️ Balance Risk
For Gold, play it safe with favorites. For Diamond, you'll likely need 1-2 upset calls to hit 75 points. Identify specific matches where underdogs have realistic chances.
Community Resources
Several resources can inform your predictions:
- HLTV World Rankings - The definitive team power rankings updated weekly
- Liquipedia Major Portal - Comprehensive tournament information and history
- Reddit r/GlobalOffensive Pick'Em threads - Community discussion and prediction analysis
- Professional analysts on social media - Esports journalists often share insights before matches
The "Safe Gold" Strategy
If your goal is Gold (50 points) rather than Diamond, focus on reliability over upsets:
- Pick all top-4 ranked teams to advance in both stages
- Choose a mid-tier team with an easy draw for your 3-0
- Select the lowest-ranked team attending for 0-3
- Follow seeding for playoff predictions (higher seeds win)
- Pick the consensus favorite as tournament champion
This approach typically yields 45-55 points, securing Gold in most Majors.
The Sticker Connection
Pick'Em is fundamentally linked to the Major sticker ecosystem. Understanding this connection helps you participate more efficiently and potentially save money on sticker purchases.
Sticker Requirements
Each prediction slot requires applying a team sticker. Once applied, that sticker is consumed—it cannot be recovered or sold. This means participating in Pick'Em has a real cost beyond the Viewer Pass, as you're essentially "spending" stickers on predictions.
Sticker Quality Doesn't Matter
All sticker qualities (Paper, Glitter, Holo, Gold) work identically for Pick'Em purposes. The cheapest Paper stickers provide the same prediction functionality as expensive Golds. Smart participants buy only Paper quality for predictions and save premium stickers for collection or application on weapons.
Market Dynamics
Major sticker prices follow predictable patterns, as covered in our Market Timing Guide:
- Before Major: Prices rise as demand increases for Pick'Em participation
- During Major: Prices peak early, then stabilize as supply increases
- After Major: Remaining capsules sell out; prices begin long-term appreciation for popular teams
Sticker Investment Tip
If you're buying stickers anyway for Pick'Em, consider purchasing a few extra capsules as potential investments. Major stickers historically appreciate in value over time, especially for legendary teams and popular players. However, this involves market speculation—not all stickers increase in value, and some barely hold their purchase price. For detailed investment considerations, see our Skin Investment Guide.
Historical Pick'Em Data
Understanding past Major trends helps inform future predictions. Here's what historical data tells us about Pick'Em outcomes.
Diamond Coin Rarity
Diamond coins are genuinely rare. Across recent Majors, typically only 5-10% of participants achieve Diamond tier. This percentage varies significantly based on tournament predictability—Majors with many upsets see Diamond rates drop, while chalk tournaments allow more players to reach 75+ points.
Common Upsets
Certain patterns recur across Majors:
- 3-0 favorites rarely go 3-0: Top-ranked teams face tougher early opponents due to seeding
- Underdog regions surprise: Teams from emerging regions (Americas, Asia-Pacific) occasionally upset European favorites
- Roster changes cause volatility: New lineups are unpredictable regardless of player talent
- Home crowd matters: Regional Majors see local teams exceed expectations
Champion Predictability
Major winners are more predictable than stage advancement. The champion typically comes from the top 4 ranked teams entering the tournament. Historically, approximately 80% of Major winners were top-4 favorites. Complete dark horse championships are rare but memorable when they occur.
Past Performance Caveat
Esports rosters change frequently. A team's previous Major performance means little if they've changed 2-3 players since. Always check current rosters and recent results rather than relying solely on team name recognition. Use resources like HLTV Statistics to verify current team compositions.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Many participants make predictable errors that cost valuable points. Learning from common mistakes helps maximize your Pick'Em performance.
❌ Missing Deadlines
The most costly mistake is forgetting to submit predictions before cutoff. Set calendar reminders for each stage deadline. Submit early even if you're uncertain—you can always change picks before the deadline.
❌ Picking Favorites for 3-0
Tournament favorites rarely go 3-0 because they face tougher opponents due to seeding. Choose a slightly weaker team with an easier path for higher 3-0 probability.
❌ Overweighting Old Results
Don't pick based on team reputation from years ago. CS2 rosters change constantly. A legendary organization with a new roster is effectively a different team.
❌ Using Expensive Stickers
Paper stickers work identically to Golds for Pick'Em. Don't waste valuable Holo or Gold stickers on predictions when cheap Paper versions do the same job.
❌ Not Buying Enough Stickers
Some participants realize too late they don't have stickers for all picks. Check how many predictions you need to make and ensure you have the required stickers before deadlines.
❌ Ignoring Recent Form
A team's last 3 months matter more than their career record. Check recent LAN performances and online results before making predictions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is CS2 Pick'Em?
CS2 Pick'Em is an official prediction game during Major Championships where players use team stickers to predict tournament outcomes. Correct predictions earn points toward commemorative coins in Bronze, Silver, Gold, or Diamond tiers. It combines esports knowledge with collectible engagement.
How many points do I need for a Diamond Pick'Em coin?
You need 75 or more points for a Diamond coin, which is the highest tier. Bronze requires 5+ points, Silver requires 25+, and Gold requires 50+. Diamond is rare, typically achieved by only 5-10% of participants.
How much does it cost to participate in CS2 Pick'Em?
Full participation typically costs $15-25: the Viewer Pass ($9.99) plus team stickers for predictions ($5-15 depending on how you acquire them). Using Paper quality stickers minimizes cost while providing identical Pick'Em functionality.
Can I change my Pick'Em predictions?
Yes, but only before the deadline for each stage. Once a stage begins, those predictions lock permanently. You can change picks freely before cutoffs, so submit early and adjust as needed until the deadline.
What happens to Pick'Em coins after the Major?
Pick'Em coins are permanent inventory items that stay forever. They display your achievement tier and the specific Major. Coins are non-tradeable collectibles that can be displayed on your CS2 profile as badges of participation.
Do sticker qualities affect Pick'Em?
No, all sticker qualities (Paper, Glitter, Holo, Gold) function identically for Pick'Em. The cheapest Paper stickers work just as well as expensive premium versions. Save your valuable stickers for weapons or collection.
How rare is the Diamond Pick'Em coin?
Diamond coins are genuinely rare. Only about 5-10% of participants achieve Diamond tier, with the exact percentage varying based on tournament predictability. Majors with many upsets see lower Diamond rates.
When do Pick'Em deadlines occur?
Deadlines vary by stage, with cutoffs typically a few hours before each stage begins. Valve announces exact times on the official CS2 blog. Always submit predictions early to avoid last-minute issues.
Related Guides
Official Resources
Stay informed with official sources:
- CS2 Official Blog - Pick'Em announcements and deadlines
- HLTV.org - Team rankings, statistics, and match results
- Liquipedia Majors Portal - Tournament brackets and history
- Steam Community Market - Sticker purchases
Responsible Participation
While Pick'Em is primarily a prediction game rather than gambling, it does involve real money through sticker purchases. Set a budget for your participation and stick to it. The entertainment value comes from tournament engagement, not potential profit. If you or someone you know has concerns about spending habits, visit BeGambleAware for support resources.
Last updated: January 2026